🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.