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This Sunday, the nation of CAR will hold a significant series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, national assembly, and municipal offices.

A Crowded Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are competing for the presidency, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were given approval to stand by the constitutional court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra briefly served under the current president.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition aims to tap into widespread discontent in a nation where conflict remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the remarkable recovery of the country," noted a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is widely expected to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, holding the post until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a civil war.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for neutrality from the warring factions fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

Concerns persist that supply-chain issues and violence could mar the vote, particularly in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering protection and logistical support that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Further issues include the electoral roll being published only online, a major hurdle in a nation with scarce online access. These irregularities have prompted an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 constitutional referendum that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and despite its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Allegations have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to make way for a foreign-run livestock operation. A critical editorial accused the leadership of being "determined to sell off the country bit by bit."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering hope of stabilization, the election proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and geopolitical rivalry.